PM Narendra Modi and West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee   |  Photo Credit: PTI
Kolkata: After being ruled by Left parties for many decades since Independence, West Bengal is all set to witness a powerful contest between All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 2021 Assembly Elections, said Times Now-C-Voter opinion poll.
Albeit the opinion poll suggests that Mamata Banerjee-led TMC has a clear edge, yet the BJP is likely to make a huge dent in West Bengal’s political equation.
As per the survey, the TMC may win 160 seats, which is 51 seats lesser than its 2016 tally. The survey projects that the BJP will push its tally from only three seats in the 2016 polls to 112 in the 2021 polls. The Left Front-Congress-Indian Secular Front (ISF) alliance is likely to be at the third spot with 22 seats.
|Party/Alliance||2016 results||2021 projection||Change|
Interestingly, the difference between the vote percentage of the TMC and BJP is not huge. The poll suggests that the TMC is likely to get 42.1 per cent of votes in 2021 polls, 2.8 per cent less than the 2016 results. The BJP is not far behind with 37.4 per cent, a boost of 27.2 per cent from 10.2 per cent in 2016.
The Left Front-Congress-Indian Secular Front combine is projected to get 13 per cent votes in 2021 polls.
|Party/Alliance||2016 results||2021 projection||Swing|
West Bengal: Projected range of seats
While the TMC is likely to register a victory in 152-168 constituencies out of a total of 294 seats in the fray, the BJP may win 104-120 seats. The Left Front-Congress combine is projected to grab 18-26 seats, while the Independents may win 0-2 seats.
WB polls: Perception Gap
The survey, in the third week of March, observed a gap between the numbers of actual voting intention and the perception of winnability of political parties in West Bengal. As per the survey, 44.6 per cent of participants perceived that the TMC is likely to grab victory in the West Bengal Assembly Elections, while 36.9 per cent perceived that the BJP will win.
|Alliance||Actual Vote: Whom will you vote for if the Assembly Elections are held today?||Irrespective of whichever party you support or vote for, which party or alliance do you think will win the West Bengal state elections?||Perception Gap|
Next West Bengal CM
Out of 17,890 respondents surveyed in March, around 55 per cent said that TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee is the most suitable candidate for the CM post in West Bengal. BJP West Bengal unit chief Dilip Ghosh followed Mamata Banerjee in the poll with 32.3 per cent.
|Mamata Banerjee (TMC)||54.9|
|Dilip Ghosh (BJP)||32.3|
|Mukul Roy (BJP)||6.5|
|Sujon Chakraborty (CPI-M)||1.3|
|Suvendu Adhikari (BJP)||1.3|
|Abhishek Banerjee (TMC)||1.2|
|Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury (INC)||1.2|
|Rajiv Banerjee (BJP)||0.1|
How satisfied are you with the current central government led by BJP?
While 42.99 per cent of respondents said they were ‘very much satisfied’ with the Centre’s performance, 28.78 per cent said they were ‘not at all satisfied’. Around 25 per cent were ‘satisfied to some extent’.
How satisfied are you with the state government’s performance?
In West Bengal, 37.0 per cent of respondents said they were ‘very much satisfied’ with Mamata Banerjee-led TMC government’s performance. While 33.66 per cent were ‘satisfied to some extent’, 26.4 per cent of respondents said they were ‘not at all satisfied’.
How satisfied are you with the chief minister’s performance?
West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee received thumbs-up from almost half of the respondents. Around 46 per cent of people who were surveyed said that they were ‘very much satisfied’ with the CM’s work, while 20.04 per cent said they were ‘not at all satisfied’.
How satisfied are you with the work of Congress leader Rahul Gandhi?
Approximately 32 per cent of respondents said they were ‘not at all satisfied’ with Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s work, while 20.8 per cent said that they were ‘very much satisfied’.
The Times Now-C-Voter poll tracker also carried out a snap poll between 17th March – 22nd March 2021, with 2,290 respondents. Here are the questions that were asked:
Do you believe Mamata Banerjee’s claim that her injury was an outcome of a deep conspiracy or do you think that it’s just a drama just to gain sympathy?
|Deep conspiracy||Just a drama just to gain sympathy||Can’t say||Total|
Do you think that Mamata Banerjee will actually gain sympathy?
|Will gain sympathy||Will work against TMC||Will have no impact||Can’t say||Total|
Will the Congress-Left’s alliance with Abbas Siddiqui’s Indian Secular Front eat into Mamata Banerjee’s Muslim vote bank?
Will the AIMIM and the Congress-Left-ISF alliance indirectly help the BJP by splitting Muslim votes?
Has Mamata Banerjee protected corrupt leaders in her party?
The 294 Assembly seats in West Bengal will go to the polls in eight phases. The counting of votes will take place on May 2.